Future of Finance

Inflation Resurgence Derails Fed Easing Cycle, Bonds Rally Despite Rate Cut Delays

Sunday, March 1, 2026

January PPI data showed persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in services, with core PCE expected to rise to 3.2% by March from 3%. This reverses Fed progress toward 2% targets despite 175 basis points of cuts since September 2024. Markets responded with equity selloffs but paradoxically drove 10-year Treasury yields below 4% as investors fled to safety, generating bonds' best monthly performance in a year.

The inflation rebound threatens the Fed's policy normalization and creates a stagflationary scenario where traditional correlations break down, complicating portfolio allocation strategies.

inflation
fed policy
treasury yields
monetary policy