Iranian Regime Collapse Risk Creates 30% Probability of Regional Chaos
The killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei has triggered succession uncertainty and potential regime instability, with analysts assessing a 30% chance of complete collapse. Iran's threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating proxy warfare suggest 'scorched earth' tactics that could destabilize the entire Middle East energy corridor.
Regime collapse would create a power vacuum in a key energy chokepoint, potentially triggering broader regional war and permanent disruption of global oil markets.
iran regime change
strait of hormuz
oil disruption
middle east instability